Outlook景气度

Is AI demand for data-centre capacity still accelerating?AI 对数据中心的需求还在加速吗?

Capex doubled, and the wave reached the thermal makers.资本开支翻倍,需求浪潮传到了热管理厂商。

Company data to Q3 2026; construction spending to 2026-08; data-centre power to Q3 2026.公司数据截至 Q3 2026;建设支出截至 2026-08;数据中心功率截至 Q3 2026。

Q4 ’2472Q1 ’25Q2 ’25Q3 ’2597Q4 ’25Q1 ’26Q2 ’26Q3 ’26202USD bn十亿美元+108% on a year同比 +108%

Big-four cloud capex per quarter, as reported (property and equipment spending): Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, quarters matched by period end.四大云厂商每季度资本开支,报告口径(物业和设备支出):Microsoft、Alphabet、亚马逊和 Meta,按期间截止日对齐季度。

Big-four cloud capex per quarter四大云厂商每季度资本开支

Table表格

Quarter季度USD bn十亿美元
Q4 202472.34
Q1 202571.90
Q2 202588.25
Q3 202597.27
Q4 2025118.63
Q1 2026129.75
Q2 2026165.05
Q3 2026201.92

Sources来源

  1. Microsoft Q1 FY2027: capex 39,367 million USDMicrosoft Q1 FY2027:资本开支 39,367 百万美元
  2. Alphabet Q3 2026: capex 51,355 million USDAlphabet Q3 2026:资本开支 51,355 百万美元
  3. Amazon Q3 2026: capex 77,259 million USDAmazon Q3 2026:资本开支 77,259 百万美元
  4. Meta Q3 2026: capex 33,942 million USDMeta Q3 2026:资本开支 33,942 百万美元
+20%

Combined sales of Vertiv, Johnson Controls, Carrier and Trane, Q3 2026, on a year earlier (USD 24.4 bn); +10% in Q2 2026Vertiv、江森自控、开利、Trane 四家 Q3 2026 合计销售额同比(244 亿美元);Q2 2026 为 +10%

Reported, company-wide, so it includes business outside data centres报告口径,全公司,包含数据中心以外的业务VertivVertiv Johnson ControlsJohnson Controls CarrierCarrier TraneTrane
9.4GW

AI data-centre IT power added in the four quarters to Q3 2026 at the sites Epoch AI tracks; 3.3 GW in the four quarters before截至 Q3 2026 的四个季度,Epoch AI 跟踪站点新增的 AI 数据中心 IT 功率;之前四个季度为 3.3 GW

Estimate估算Epoch AIEpoch AI

Stage 1: macro and funding第 1 段:宏观与资金

US data-centre construction spending reached USD 85 bn a year.美国数据中心建设支出达到年化 850 亿美元。
0255075100 '23'24'25'26 85.0

US private construction, USD bn, seasonally adjusted annual rate; 2026-08 is preliminary (hollow). Building work only, not servers or racks.美国私人建设支出,十亿美元,季节调整年率;2026-08 为初值(空心)。只含建筑工程,不含服务器和机柜。

US data-centre construction spending reached USD 85 bn a year.美国数据中心建设支出达到年化 850 亿美元。

Table表格

Stage阶段Series序列Period期间Value数值Unit单位Basis口径Source来源
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0115,589USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0217,920USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0318,015USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0417,943USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0518,232USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0618,735USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0719,641USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0820,498USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0921,285USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-1023,720USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-1123,864USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-1224,238USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0126,412USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0228,319USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0330,172USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0428,069USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0532,271USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0635,304USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0736,124USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0836,668USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0937,576USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-1040,048USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-1140,951USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-1244,703USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0145,341USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0246,409USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0346,593USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0452,818USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0548,210USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0646,850USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0747,810USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0849,052USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0950,700USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-1054,260USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-1153,043USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-1255,461USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0156,211USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0257,361USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0358,121USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0461,859USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0565,688USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0672,695USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率revised修订值link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0779,007USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率revised修订值link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0884,950USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率preliminary初值link链接

Sources来源

  1. US Census Bureau, Construction Spending (C30), release of 2026-10-01美国人口普查局建设支出(C30),2026-10-01 发布

Method and notes方法和说明

Construction spending covers building work only, not servers or racks.建设支出只含建筑工程,不含服务器和机柜。

Financing: capex took 91% of the big four's operating cash flow in the last four quarters, up from 61%融资:近四个季度四大云厂商资本开支占经营现金流的 91%,一年前为 61%
050100150200250 Q4'24Q2'25Q4'25Q2'26 54%63%69%61%66%86%96%115%
USD 466 bn4,660 亿美元

AI-related debt issued, January to September 2026, against USD 101 bn a year beforeAI 相关债务发行额,2026 年 1 至 9 月,一年前为 1,010 亿美元Whole industry, Morgan Stanley estimate. About 30% is secured by assets. Hyperscalers account for USD 132 bn of the 2026 total.全行业,摩根士丹利估算。约 30% 有资产担保。其中超大规模云厂商占 2026 年总额的 1,320 亿美元。

USD bn per quarter, from the companies' own filings; grey bars: operating cash flow; line: capex; % = capex ÷ operating cash flow.每季度十亿美元,来自公司自己的文件;灰柱:经营现金流;折线:资本开支;% = 资本开支 ÷ 经营现金流。

Financing: capex took 91% of the big four's operating cash flow in the last four quarters, up from 61%融资:近四个季度四大云厂商资本开支占经营现金流的 91%,一年前为 61%

Table表格

Period期间Company公司Measure指标Value数值Unit单位Source来源
Q4 2024MicrosoftCapex资本开支15,804USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2024MicrosoftOperating cash flow经营现金流22,291USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2024AlphabetCapex资本开支14,276USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2024AlphabetOperating cash flow经营现金流39,113USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2024AmazonCapex资本开支27,834USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2024AmazonOperating cash flow经营现金流45,636USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2024MetaCapex资本开支14,425USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2024MetaOperating cash flow经营现金流27,988USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2024Big four四大云厂商Capex ÷ operating cash flow资本开支 ÷ 经营现金流54%
Q1 2025MicrosoftCapex资本开支16,745USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2025MicrosoftOperating cash flow经营现金流37,044USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2025AlphabetCapex资本开支17,197USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2025AlphabetOperating cash flow经营现金流36,150USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2025AmazonCapex资本开支25,019USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2025AmazonOperating cash flow经营现金流17,015USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2025MetaCapex资本开支12,941USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2025MetaOperating cash flow经营现金流24,026USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2025Big four四大云厂商Capex ÷ operating cash flow资本开支 ÷ 经营现金流63%
Q2 2025MicrosoftCapex资本开支17,079USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2025MicrosoftOperating cash flow经营现金流42,647USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2025AlphabetCapex资本开支22,446USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2025AlphabetOperating cash flow经营现金流27,747USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2025AmazonCapex资本开支32,183USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2025AmazonOperating cash flow经营现金流32,515USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2025MetaCapex资本开支16,538USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2025MetaOperating cash flow经营现金流25,561USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2025Big four四大云厂商Capex ÷ operating cash flow资本开支 ÷ 经营现金流69%
Q3 2025MicrosoftCapex资本开支19,394USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2025MicrosoftOperating cash flow经营现金流45,057USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2025AlphabetCapex资本开支23,953USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2025AlphabetOperating cash flow经营现金流48,414USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2025AmazonCapex资本开支35,095USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2025AmazonOperating cash flow经营现金流35,525USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2025MetaCapex资本开支18,829USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2025MetaOperating cash flow经营现金流29,999USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2025Big four四大云厂商Capex ÷ operating cash flow资本开支 ÷ 经营现金流61%
Q4 2025MicrosoftCapex资本开支29,876USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2025MicrosoftOperating cash flow经营现金流35,758USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2025AlphabetCapex资本开支27,851USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2025AlphabetOperating cash flow经营现金流52,402USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2025AmazonCapex资本开支39,522USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2025AmazonOperating cash flow经营现金流54,459USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2025MetaCapex资本开支21,383USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2025MetaOperating cash flow经营现金流36,214USD million百万美元link链接
Q4 2025Big four四大云厂商Capex ÷ operating cash flow资本开支 ÷ 经营现金流66%
Q1 2026MicrosoftCapex资本开支30,876USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2026MicrosoftOperating cash flow经营现金流46,679USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2026AlphabetCapex资本开支35,674USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2026AlphabetOperating cash flow经营现金流45,790USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2026AmazonCapex资本开支44,203USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2026AmazonOperating cash flow经营现金流26,032USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2026MetaCapex资本开支18,997USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2026MetaOperating cash flow经营现金流32,226USD million百万美元link链接
Q1 2026Big four四大云厂商Capex ÷ operating cash flow资本开支 ÷ 经营现金流86%
Q2 2026MicrosoftCapex资本开支35,802USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2026MicrosoftOperating cash flow经营现金流55,441USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2026AlphabetCapex资本开支44,924USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2026AlphabetOperating cash flow经营现金流39,069USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2026AmazonCapex资本开支54,208USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2026AmazonOperating cash flow经营现金流45,387USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2026MetaCapex资本开支30,116USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2026MetaOperating cash flow经营现金流31,862USD million百万美元link链接
Q2 2026Big four四大云厂商Capex ÷ operating cash flow资本开支 ÷ 经营现金流96%
Q3 2026MicrosoftCapex资本开支39,367USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2026MicrosoftOperating cash flow经营现金流58,000USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2026AlphabetCapex资本开支51,355USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2026AlphabetOperating cash flow经营现金流42,290USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2026AmazonCapex资本开支77,259USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2026AmazonOperating cash flow经营现金流42,422USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2026MetaCapex资本开支33,942USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2026MetaOperating cash flow经营现金流32,786USD million百万美元link链接
Q3 2026Big four四大云厂商Capex ÷ operating cash flow资本开支 ÷ 经营现金流115%
2025-06-30 → 2026-06-30AlphabetLong-term debt (balance sheet; non-current)23,607 → 98,165USD million百万美元earlier一年前 · latest最新
2025-06-30 → 2026-06-30AmazonLong-term debt (balance sheet; excludes current portion)50,718 → 128,894USD million百万美元earlier一年前 · latest最新
2025-06-30 → 2026-06-30MetaLong-term debt (balance sheet carrying amount)28,832 → 83,664USD million百万美元earlier一年前 · latest最新
2025-06-30 → 2026-06-30MicrosoftLong-term debt, non-current (current portion 2,999 → 9,227 not included)40,152 → 31,067USD million百万美元earlier一年前 · latest最新
a year earlier一年前 → 2026-06-30MicrosoftLeases not yet commenced尚未开始的租赁92.7 → 329.1USD bn十亿美元earlier一年前 · latest最新
a year earlier一年前 → 2026-06-30MetaLeases not yet commenced尚未开始的租赁52.6 → 279.0USD bn十亿美元earlier一年前 · latest最新
a year earlier一年前 → 2026-06-30AlphabetLeases not yet commenced尚未开始的租赁23.9 → 85.2USD bn十亿美元earlier一年前 · latest最新
a year earlier一年前 → 2026-06-30AmazonLeases not yet commenced尚未开始的租赁 (All lease types, not data centres only全部租赁,不只数据中心)68.9 → 137.2USD bn十亿美元earlier一年前 · latest最新
a year earlier一年前 → 2026-08-31OracleLeases not yet commenced尚未开始的租赁 (Fiscal quarter ending 31 August财季截至 8 月 31 日)99.8 → 288.0USD bn十亿美元earlier一年前 · latest最新
2025-09-24OracleBonds债券USD 18.0 bn senior notes180 亿美元优先票据as stated按原文filing文件
2025-10MetaJoint venture合资Joint venture with Blue Owl funds for the Richland Parish, Louisiana campus: the investor put in USD 7.0 bn cash for 80%; Meta leases campus properties from 2029, initial commitment about USD 12.3 bn over four years与 Blue Owl 旗下基金就路易斯安那州 Richland Parish 园区合资:投资方出资 70 亿美元现金占 80%;Meta 自 2029 年起租用园区物业,初始租赁承诺约 123 亿美元、为期四年as stated按原文filing文件
2025-10-30MetaBonds债券USD 30.0 bn senior notes300 亿美元优先票据as stated按原文filing文件
2025-11-03AlphabetBonds债券USD 17.5 bn notes, with EUR 6.5 bn notes175 亿美元票据,另有 65 亿欧元票据as stated按原文filing文件
2025-11-19AmazonBonds债券USD 15.0 bn notes (sum of tranches)150 亿美元票据(各期之和)as stated按原文filing文件
2026-02-02OracleBonds and equity债券与股权USD 25.0 bn senior notes, mandatory convertible preferred (net about USD 5.0 bn) and an at-the-market programme for up to USD 20 bn of common stock250 亿美元优先票据、强制可转换优先股(净额约 50 亿美元)及最高 200 亿美元普通股的市价发行计划as stated按原文filing文件
2026-02-09AlphabetBonds债券USD 20.0 bn notes, with GBP 5.5 bn notes (one tranche due 2126)200 亿美元票据,另有 55 亿英镑票据(其中一期 2126 年到期)as stated按原文filing文件
2026-03-12AmazonBonds债券USD 37.0 bn notes (sum of tranches), with EUR 14.5 bn notes370 亿美元票据(各期之和),另有 145 亿欧元票据as stated按原文filing文件
2026-04-30MetaBonds债券USD 25.0 bn senior notes250 亿美元优先票据as stated按原文filing文件
2026-05-05AlphabetBonds债券CAD 8.5 bn, EUR 9.0 bn and JPY 576.5 bn notes (net USD 20.3 bn in the quarter)85 亿加元、90 亿欧元和 5,765 亿日元票据(当季净额 203 亿美元)as stated按原文filing文件
2026-06-01AlphabetEquity股权Issued Class A and C stock and mandatory convertible preferred for net USD 49.6 bn, and set up an at-the-market programme to sell up to USD 40 bn of stock over time发行 A 类、C 类股票和强制可转换优先股,净额 496 亿美元;并设立最多 400 亿美元、可分次出售股票的市价发行计划as stated按原文filing文件
2026-06-08AmazonLoan and bonds贷款与债券USD 17.5 bn delayed-draw term loan facility (could be drawn until 30 September 2026), with CAD 14.0 bn notes the same week175 亿美元延迟提款定期贷款额度(可在 2026 年 9 月 30 日前提款),同周另有 140 亿加元票据as stated按原文filing文件
2026-07-08AmazonBonds债券USD 25.0 bn notes (sum of tranches)250 亿美元票据(各期之和)as stated按原文filing文件
2026-08-06AlphabetBonds债券USD 25.0 bn notes250 亿美元票据as stated按原文filing文件
2025, same period2025 年同期Whole industry全行业Global AI-related debt issuance, year to date (to September)全球 AI 相关债务发行,年初至今(截至 9 月) (Bank estimate银行估算)101USD bn十亿美元Wisburg (智堡) report summary, ID 108199, "AI融资现状:暂停而非撤退"智堡研报摘要,编号 108199,《AI融资现状:暂停而非撤退》
2026 to date2026 年至今Whole industry全行业Global AI-related debt issuance, year to date (to September)全球 AI 相关债务发行,年初至今(截至 9 月) (Bank estimate银行估算)466USD bn十亿美元Wisburg (智堡) report summary, ID 108199, "AI融资现状:暂停而非撤退"智堡研报摘要,编号 108199,《AI融资现状:暂停而非撤退》

Sources来源

  1. Microsoft Q1 FY2027: cash-flow statement in the earnings exhibitMicrosoft Q1 FY2027:业绩附件中的现金流量表
  2. Alphabet Q3 2026: cash-flow statement in the earnings exhibitAlphabet Q3 2026:业绩附件中的现金流量表
  3. Amazon Q3 2026: cash-flow statement in the earnings exhibitAmazon Q3 2026:业绩附件中的现金流量表
  4. Meta Q3 2026: cash-flow statement in the earnings exhibitMeta Q3 2026:业绩附件中的现金流量表
  5. Microsoft: quarterly report, leases not yet commenced (2026-06-30)Microsoft:季报,尚未开始的租赁(2026-06-30)
  6. Meta: quarterly report, leases not yet commenced (2026-06-30)Meta:季报,尚未开始的租赁(2026-06-30)
  7. Alphabet: quarterly report, leases not yet commenced (2026-06-30)Alphabet:季报,尚未开始的租赁(2026-06-30)
  8. Amazon: quarterly report, leases not yet commenced (2026-06-30)Amazon:季报,尚未开始的租赁(2026-06-30)
  9. Oracle: quarterly report, leases not yet commenced (2026-08-31)Oracle:季报,尚未开始的租赁(2026-08-31)
  10. Oracle, 2025-09-24: 424B2 prospectus supplement, Use of ProceedsOracle,2025-09-24:424B2 prospectus supplement, Use of Proceeds
  11. Meta, 2025-10: 10-Q for quarter ended 2025-09-30, Note 13. Subsequent EventMeta,2025-10:10-Q for quarter ended 2025-09-30, Note 13. Subsequent Event
  12. Meta, 2025-10-30: 424B2 prospectus supplement, Use of ProceedsMeta,2025-10-30:424B2 prospectus supplement, Use of Proceeds
  13. Alphabet, 2025-11-03: 424B2 prospectus supplements (USD and EUR), Use of ProceedsAlphabet,2025-11-03:424B2 prospectus supplements (USD and EUR), Use of Proceeds
  14. Amazon, 2025-11-19: 424B5 prospectus supplement, Use of ProceedsAmazon,2025-11-19:424B5 prospectus supplement, Use of Proceeds
  15. Oracle, 2026-02-02: 424B2 notes supplement; 424B5 preferred supplement; 424B5 ATM supplement; 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-08-31) cash-flow statementOracle,2026-02-02:424B2 notes supplement; 424B5 preferred supplement; 424B5 ATM supplement; 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-08-31) cash-flow statement
  16. Alphabet, 2026-02-09: 424B2 prospectus supplements (USD and GBP), Use of ProceedsAlphabet,2026-02-09:424B2 prospectus supplements (USD and GBP), Use of Proceeds
  17. Amazon, 2026-03-12: 424B5 prospectus supplements (USD and EUR), Use of ProceedsAmazon,2026-03-12:424B5 prospectus supplements (USD and EUR), Use of Proceeds
  18. Meta, 2026-04-30: 424B2 prospectus supplement, Use of ProceedsMeta,2026-04-30:424B2 prospectus supplement, Use of Proceeds
  19. Alphabet, 2026-05-05: 10-Q for quarter ended 2026-06-30 (MD&A); 424B2/424B5 supplements for the currency amountsAlphabet,2026-05-05:10-Q for quarter ended 2026-06-30 (MD&A); 424B2/424B5 supplements for the currency amounts
  20. Alphabet, 2026-06-01: 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, Other InformationAlphabet,2026-06-01:10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, Other Information
  21. Amazon, 2026-06-08: 8-K Item 1.01; 424B5 CAD notes supplementAmazon,2026-06-08:8-K Item 1.01; 424B5 CAD notes supplement
  22. Amazon, 2026-07-08: 424B5 prospectus supplement, Use of ProceedsAmazon,2026-07-08:424B5 prospectus supplement, Use of Proceeds
  23. Alphabet, 2026-08-06: 424B2 prospectus supplement, Use of ProceedsAlphabet,2026-08-06:424B2 prospectus supplement, Use of Proceeds
  24. Morgan Stanley, 2026-10-02, as summarised by Wisburg (智堡) report summary, ID 108199, "AI融资现状:暂停而非撤退"; retrieved 2026-10-16摩根士丹利,2026-10-02,见智堡研报摘要,编号 108199,《AI融资现状:暂停而非撤退》;2026-10-16 获取

Method and notes方法和说明

The debt and lease figures and the events come from the companies' own SEC filings (earnings exhibits, 10-Q and 10-K, prospectus supplements and 8-Ks). Amounts are as stated; non-USD amounts are not converted; companies are never added together except capex and operating cash flow of the big four, which use the same reported definitions as the relay. Events are bond, loan and equity financings of USD 10 bn or more, and the Meta campus joint venture (USD 7.0 bn cash from the investor plus about USD 12.3 bn of initial lease commitments). Capex is purchases of property and equipment as reported. Operating cash flow is the three-month figure from each cash-flow statement; quarters are matched by period end (Microsoft's fiscal year ends in June). The headline ratio uses four quarters because quarterly cash flow is seasonal (Amazon's first quarter is always low). Long-term debt is the non-current line on the balance sheet; Microsoft's current portion (USD 9.2 bn at 30 June 2026) is not included. Leases not yet commenced are future payments the companies have committed to; they enter the balance sheet only when each lease starts. Amazon's figure covers all lease types; Oracle's dates are its fiscal quarter ends (31 August). Events are dated by the prospectus supplement or agreement; amounts are as stated, sums of tranches where the filing prints no total; non-USD amounts are not converted. Microsoft filed no bond or equity offering in this period. Whole-industry figure: The figures are Morgan Stanley estimates as summarised by Wisburg; the original report was not read, and the scope of "AI-related" is the bank's. Scope: the debt, leases and events cover Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle, from their own filings; the whole-industry figure comes from a Morgan Stanley estimate summarised by Wisburg (智堡), which covers investment-grade, high-yield, asset-backed and project-finance debt and does not say whether private-credit deals are included.债务、租赁和事件表的数值来自公司自己的 SEC 文件(业绩附件、10-Q 和 10-K、募集说明书补充文件和 8-K)。金额按原文;非美元金额不换算;除四大云厂商的资本开支和经营现金流(与需求接力同一报告口径)外,各公司数值不相加。事件包括 100 亿美元及以上的债券、贷款和股权融资,以及 Meta 园区合资(投资方现金 70 亿美元,另有约 123 亿美元初始租赁承诺)。资本开支为报告的物业和设备购置支出。经营现金流为各现金流量表中的三个月数字;按期间截止日对齐季度(Microsoft 的财年在 6 月结束)。标题中的比率用四个季度合计,因为季度现金流有季节性(亚马逊第一季度总是偏低)。长期债务为资产负债表上的非流动部分;Microsoft 的一年内到期部分(2026-06-30 为 92 亿美元)未计入。尚未开始的租赁是公司已承诺的未来付款,每份租赁开始后才计入资产负债表。亚马逊的数字包括全部租赁类型;甲骨文的日期为其财季末(8 月 31 日)。事件按募集说明书补充文件或协议日期排列;金额按原文,文件未列总额时为各期之和;非美元金额不换算。此期间 Microsoft 没有提交债券或股权发行文件。全行业数字:数字为智堡摘要中的摩根士丹利估算;未读原报告,“AI 相关”的口径由该银行界定。范围:长期债务、租赁和事件只含 Microsoft、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta 和甲骨文,数据来自它们自己的文件;全行业数字来自智堡摘要的摩根士丹利估算,摘要涵盖投资级、高收益、资产支持和项目融资债务,未说明是否包括私募信贷。

Stage 2: AI use第 2 段:AI 使用

Google's token count rose about 7× in a year.Google 的 token 量一年增长约 7 倍。

Google tokens per monthGoogle 每月 token

As disclosed; log scale; points not joined; hollow = "over" or "roughly"按披露;对数坐标;各点不相连;空心 = “超过”或“约”

1T10T100T1Q10Q '24'25'26

OpenAI API tokens per minuteOpenAI API 每分钟 token

As disclosed; log scale; points not joined; hollow = "over"按披露;对数坐标;各点不相连;空心 = “超过”

1B10B100B '25'26

Token figures are each company's own statements at irregular dates. Coverage differs (all Google products, one API platform), so they are never added or compared as levels; compare each company only with its own earlier points.token 数字是各公司在不同时间的自述。覆盖范围不同(Google 全部产品、单一 API 平台),因此不相加,也不比较绝对量;每家只与自己之前的点比较。

Google's token count rose about 7× in a year.Google 的 token 量一年增长约 7 倍。

Table表格

Stage阶段Series序列Period期间Value数值Unit单位Basis口径Source来源
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens processed per month across Google's surfacesGoogle 各产品每月处理的 token2024-059.7 trillion9.7 万亿tokens per monthtoken/月Company statement, published 2026-05-19公司表述,2026-05-19 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens processed per month across Google's surfacesGoogle 各产品每月处理的 token2025-05roughly 480 trillion约480 万亿tokens per monthtoken/月Company statement, published 2026-05-19公司表述,2026-05-19 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens processed per month across Google's surfacesGoogle 各产品每月处理的 token2025-07980 trillion980 万亿tokens per monthtoken/月Company statement, published 2025-10-29公司表述,2025-10-29 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens processed per month across Google's surfacesGoogle 各产品每月处理的 token2025-10over 1,300 trillion超过1,300 万亿tokens per monthtoken/月Company statement, published 2025-10-29公司表述,2025-10-29 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens processed per month across Google's surfacesGoogle 各产品每月处理的 token2026-05over 3,200 trillion超过3,200 万亿tokens per monthtoken/月Company statement, published 2026-05-19公司表述,2026-05-19 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute through Google's model APIs (direct customer use)Google 模型 API 每分钟处理的 token(客户直接调用)2025-107 billion70 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2025-10-29公司表述,2025-10-29 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute through Google's model APIs (direct customer use)Google 模型 API 每分钟处理的 token(客户直接调用)2026-05roughly 19 billion约190 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2026-05-19公司表述,2026-05-19 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute through Google's model APIs (direct customer use)Google 模型 API 每分钟处理的 token(客户直接调用)2026-07approximately 22 billion约220 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2026-07-22公司表述,2026-07-22 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute through Google's model APIs (direct customer use)Google 模型 API 每分钟处理的 token(客户直接调用)2026-10nearly 32 billion近320 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2026-10-28公司表述,2026-10-28 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute on OpenAI's API platformOpenAI API 平台每分钟处理的 token2025-106 billion60 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2025-10-06公司表述,2025-10-06 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute on OpenAI's API platformOpenAI API 平台每分钟处理的 token2026-03over 15 billion超过150 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2026-03-31公司表述,2026-03-31 发布link链接

Sources来源

  1. Google: CEO remarks with token figuresGoogle:CEO 讲话中的 token 数字
  2. Google: CEO remarks with token figuresGoogle:CEO 讲话中的 token 数字
  3. OpenAI DevDay 2025 page (Internet Archive copy, 7 October 2025)OpenAI DevDay 2025 页面(互联网档案馆存档,2025 年 10 月 7 日)
  4. OpenAI, "Accelerating the next phase of AI" (31 March 2026)OpenAI《Accelerating the next phase of AI》(2026 年 3 月 31 日)

Method and notes方法和说明

As disclosed; log scale; points are not joined; hollow means "over" or "roughly".按披露;对数坐标;各点不相连;空心表示“超过”或“约”。

Stage 3: investment第 3 段:投资

Four companies spent USD 202 bn in one quarter.四家公司一个季度投入 2020 亿美元。
Amazon77.3Alphabet51.4Microsoft39.4Meta33.9

Q3 2026 capex, USD bn, reported; quarters matched by period end. Microsoft's is its Q1 FY2027.Q3 2026 资本开支,十亿美元,报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度。Microsoft 为其 Q1 FY2027。

Four companies spent USD 202 bn in one quarter.四家公司一个季度投入 2020 亿美元。

Table表格

Stage阶段Series序列Period期间Value数值Unit单位Basis口径Source来源
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q4 202472.34USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q1 202571.90USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q2 202588.25USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q3 202597.27USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q4 2025118.63USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q1 2026129.75USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q2 2026165.05USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q3 2026201.92USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接

Sources来源

  1. Microsoft Q1 FY2027: company filingMicrosoft Q1 FY2027:公司文件
  2. Alphabet Q3 2026: company filingAlphabet Q3 2026:公司文件
  3. Amazon Q3 2026: company filingAmazon Q3 2026:公司文件
  4. Meta Q3 2026: company filingMeta Q3 2026:公司文件

Method and notes方法和说明

Sum of the four reported figures; quarters matched by period end.四家报告值之和;按期间截止日对齐季度。

Stage 4: construction第 4 段:建设落地

At the sites Epoch AI tracks, 14.1 GW is in operation, 9.4 GW of it added in the last four quarters.在 Epoch AI 跟踪的站点,投运功率 14.1 GW,其中 9.4 GW 是近四个季度新增的。
010203040 '24'25'26'27'28 14.1 GW38.2 GW, Epoch projection38.2 GW,Epoch 预测

GW at the 96 AI sites Epoch tracks, built or under construction from 2024, so the line starts near zero by design. Values are estimates; the dashed line is Epoch's projection.Epoch 跟踪的 96 个 AI 站点(2024 年起建成或在建),单位 GW,按此收录规则曲线从接近零起步。数值为估计值;虚线为 Epoch 预测。

At the sites Epoch AI tracks, 14.1 GW is in operation, 9.4 GW of it added in the last four quarters.在 Epoch AI 跟踪的站点,投运功率 14.1 GW,其中 9.4 GW 是近四个季度新增的。

Table表格

Stage阶段Series序列Period期间Value数值Unit单位Basis口径Source来源
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2024-03-31534MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2024-06-30935MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2024-09-301,381MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2024-12-312,015MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2025-03-312,688MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2025-06-303,948MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2025-09-304,667MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2025-12-316,789MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2026-03-318,447MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2026-06-3012,200MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2026-09-3014,054MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2026-12-3117,052MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2027-03-3119,311MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2027-06-3020,299MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2027-09-3022,274MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2027-12-3124,998MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2028-03-3130,296MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2028-06-3032,299MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2028-09-3033,259MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2028-12-3138,176MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接

Sources来源

  1. Epoch AI, ‘AI data centers’. Published online at epoch.ai. Retrieved from ‘https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers’, retrieved 2026-11-01; quarterly totals computed by this site from Epoch's site timelinesEpoch AI《AI data centers》,2026-11-01 获取;季度合计由本站根据 Epoch 的站点时间线计算
  2. Licence of the Epoch AI and IEA material: CC BY 4.0Epoch AI 与 IEA 资料的许可:CC BY 4.0

Method and notes方法和说明

Epoch AI material is used under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0); the quarterly totals are this site's sums of Epoch's site timelines. The series only includes AI sites operational from 2024 or under construction, so its rise reflects that inclusion rule as well as new building; Epoch also adds sites as it finds them. Points up to 2026-11-01 are Epoch estimates of what is in operation; later points are Epoch projections. Epoch: 80% of IT-power estimates within a factor of 1.4; timeline dates within 6 months 80% of the time. Sites operational from 2024 or under construction with a significant chance of completion; Epoch estimates its coverage at about 44% of global deployed AI compute.Epoch AI 资料按 CC BY 4.0(creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)使用;季度合计为本站对 Epoch 站点时间线的求和。该序列只收录 2024 年起投运或在建的 AI 站点,所以上升既反映新建,也反映收录规则;Epoch 还会陆续加入新发现的站点。2026-11-01 之前的点是 Epoch 对已投运容量的估计,之后的点是 Epoch 的预测。Epoch:80% 的 IT 功率估计在真实值的 1.4 倍以内;80% 的时间节点误差在 6 个月以内。2024 年起投运或很可能建成的在建站点;Epoch 估计覆盖全球已部署 AI 算力的约 44%。

Stage 5: forecasts第 5 段:预测

The IEA's 2030 forecast held flat: 945, then 950 TWh.IEA 对 2030 年的预测基本持平:945,然后 950 TWh。
~945TWh

IEA, Energy and AI, 2025-04

~950TWh

IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI, 2026

Forecasts of global data-centre electricity in 2030, not installed capacity. The estimates for 2024 and 2025, the LBNL US forecasts and the big-four guidance for 2026 capex are in the closing section.对 2030 年全球数据中心用电的预测,不是装机容量。2024 和 2025 年估计值、LBNL 美国预测和四大云厂商 2026 年资本开支指引见文末。

The IEA's 2030 forecast held flat: 945, then 950 TWh.IEA 对 2030 年的预测基本持平:945,然后 950 TWh。

Table表格

Stage阶段Series序列Period期间Value数值Unit单位Basis口径Source来源
5. Forecasts5. 预测IEA, Energy and AI (2025-04): Global data centres, Base CaseIEA《Energy and AI》(2025-04):全球数据中心,基准情景2024415TWhestimate估计link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测IEA, Energy and AI (2025-04): Global data centres, Base CaseIEA《Energy and AI》(2025-04):全球数据中心,基准情景2030~945TWhforecast预测link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测IEA, Energy and AI (2025-04): Global data centres, Base CaseIEA《Energy and AI》(2025-04):全球数据中心,基准情景2035~1,200TWhforecast预测link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI (2026): Global data centresIEA《Key Questions on Energy and AI》(2026):全球数据中心2025485TWhestimate估计link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI (2026): Global data centresIEA《Key Questions on Energy and AI》(2026):全球数据中心2030950TWhforecast预测link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report (2024-12): US data centresLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory《2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report》(2024-12):美国数据中心2028325–580TWhforecast预测link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update (2026-06): US data centresLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory《United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update》(2026-06):美国数据中心2030649TWhforecast预测link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Alphabet: 2026 capex guidanceAlphabet:2026 年资本开支指引2026-02-04175–185USD bn十亿美元Company statement公司表述link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Alphabet: 2026 capex guidanceAlphabet:2026 年资本开支指引2026-04-29180–190USD bn十亿美元now includes the Intersect acquisition纳入 Intersect 收购link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Alphabet: 2026 capex guidanceAlphabet:2026 年资本开支指引2026-07-22195–205USD bn十亿美元faster delivery of capacity to meet demand加快交付容量以满足需求link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Meta: 2026 capex guidance (includes principal payments on finance leases)Meta:2026 年资本开支指引(含融资租赁本金支付)2026-01-28115–135USD bn十亿美元Company statement公司表述link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Meta: 2026 capex guidance (includes principal payments on finance leases)Meta:2026 年资本开支指引(含融资租赁本金支付)2026-04-29125–145USD bn十亿美元Company statement公司表述link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Meta: 2026 capex guidance (includes principal payments on finance leases)Meta:2026 年资本开支指引(含融资租赁本金支付)2026-07-29130–145USD bn十亿美元range narrowed (low end raised)区间收窄(下限上调)link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Meta: 2026 capex guidanceMeta:2026 年资本开支指引2026-10-21135–145USD bn十亿美元range narrowed (low end raised)区间收窄(下限上调)link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Amazon: 2026 capex guidanceAmazon:2026 年资本开支指引2026-02-05about 200约200USD bn十亿美元Later calls (April and July 2026) are published as audio only; any update there is not verified and not shown.之后的电话会(2026 年 4 月、7 月)只有音频;其中的更新未核实,不显示。link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Amazon: 2026 capex guidanceAmazon:2026 年资本开支指引2026-10-29approximately 220约220USD bn十亿美元"Continue to expect" refers to calls published as audio only; this release is the first written source for USD 220 bn found here."继续预计"指的是只有音频的电话会;本公告是这里找到的第一个写明 2,200 亿美元的书面来源。link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Microsoft: 2026 capex guidanceMicrosoft:2026 年资本开支指引2026-04-29roughly 190约190USD bn十亿美元Includes about USD 25 bn from higher component prices; Microsoft gave its first calendar-2026 figure on this call.含约 250 亿美元的元器件涨价影响;这是 Microsoft 首次给出 2026 日历年数字。link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Microsoft: 2026 capex guidanceMicrosoft:2026 年资本开支指引2026-07-29approximately 175约175USD bn十亿美元lease reclassification, plan unchanged租赁重分类,计划不变link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Microsoft: 2026 capex guidanceMicrosoft:2026 年资本开支指引2026-10-28approximately 170约170USD bn十亿美元Lowered from about USD 175 bn; Microsoft attributes it to delays in third-party capacity.由约 1,750 亿美元下调;Microsoft 称原因是第三方算力交付延迟。link链接

Sources来源

  1. IEA, Energy and AI (2025-04)IEA《Energy and AI》(2025-04)
  2. IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI (2026)IEA《Key Questions on Energy and AI》(2026)
  3. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report (2024-12)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory《2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report》(2024-12)
  4. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update (2026-06)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory《United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update》(2026-06)
  5. Alphabet, 2026-02-04: 2026 capex guidanceAlphabet,2026-02-04:2026 年资本开支指引
  6. Alphabet, 2026-04-29: 2026 capex guidanceAlphabet,2026-04-29:2026 年资本开支指引
  7. Alphabet, 2026-07-22: 2026 capex guidanceAlphabet,2026-07-22:2026 年资本开支指引
  8. Meta, 2026-01-28: 2026 capex guidanceMeta,2026-01-28:2026 年资本开支指引
  9. Meta, 2026-04-29: 2026 capex guidanceMeta,2026-04-29:2026 年资本开支指引
  10. Meta, 2026-07-29: 2026 capex guidanceMeta,2026-07-29:2026 年资本开支指引
  11. Meta, 2026-10-21: 2026 capex guidanceMeta,2026-10-21:2026 年资本开支指引
  12. Amazon, 2026-02-05: 2026 capex guidanceAmazon,2026-02-05:2026 年资本开支指引
  13. Amazon, 2026-10-29: 2026 capex guidanceAmazon,2026-10-29:2026 年资本开支指引
  14. Microsoft, 2026-04-29: 2026 capex guidanceMicrosoft,2026-04-29:2026 年资本开支指引
  15. Microsoft, 2026-07-29: 2026 capex guidanceMicrosoft,2026-07-29:2026 年资本开支指引
  16. Microsoft, 2026-10-28: 2026 capex guidanceMicrosoft,2026-10-28:2026 年资本开支指引
  17. Licence of the Epoch AI and IEA material: CC BY 4.0Epoch AI 与 IEA 资料的许可:CC BY 4.0

Method and notes方法和说明

IEA material is used under CC BY 4.0. Capex guidance: Meta includes principal payments on finance leases; Microsoft's drop to about USD 175 bn is a lease reclassification with the plan unchanged; Microsoft's October cut to about USD 170 bn reflects delays in third-party capacity; Amazon's April and July 2026 updates were given on calls published only as audio and are not shown; its October figure is from its Q3 release.IEA 资料按 CC BY 4.0 使用。资本开支指引:Meta 含融资租赁本金支付;Microsoft 降至约 1,750 亿美元是租赁重分类,计划不变;10 月降至约 1,700 亿美元是因第三方算力交付延迟;Amazon 2026 年 4 月和 7 月的更新只见于音频版电话会,未显示,10 月数字来自其第三季度公告。

Demand relay: five stages, from money to construction and then the forecasts需求接力:五段,从资金到建设落地,再到预测

Table表格

Stage阶段Indicator指标Latest最新Signal信号
1. Macro and funding宏观与资金US private construction spending on data centres, seasonally adjusted annual rate美国私人数据中心建设支出(季节调整年率)USD 85.0 bn850 亿美元 (2026-08 (preliminary)2026-08(初值))Accelerating加速
2. AI useAI 使用Google tokens per month, as disclosedGoogle 披露的每月 token 量over 3.2 quadrillion超过 3,200 万亿 (May 2026 (I/O 2026)2026 年 5 月(I/O 2026))Points only: about 7× in a year只画披露点:一年约 7 倍
3. Investment投资Big-four cloud capex四大云厂商资本开支USD 202 bn2020 亿美元 (Q3 2026Q3 2026)Accelerating加速
4. Construction建设落地IT power in operation at the AI sites Epoch AI tracks (built from 2024)Epoch AI 跟踪的 AI 站点投运 IT 功率(2024 年起建成)14.1 GW14.1 GW (Q3 2026Q3 2026)Accelerating: 9.4 GW added in four quarters, 3.3 GW in the four before加速:近四个季度新增 9.4 GW,之前四个季度 3.3 GW
5. Forecasts预测IEA: global data-centre electricity in 2030IEA:2030 年全球数据中心用电~950 TWh约 950 TWh (IEA 2026IEA 2026)Flat: 945 → 950 TWh持平:945 → 950 TWh

Sources来源

  1. Stage 1: US Census Bureau, Construction Spending, release of 2026-10-01第 1 段:美国人口普查局建设支出,2026-10-01 发布
  2. Stage 2: Google, May 2026 (I/O 2026)第 2 段:Google,2026 年 5 月(I/O 2026)
  3. Stage 4: Epoch AI, AI data centers (CC BY 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-01第 4 段:Epoch AI《AI data centers》(CC BY 4.0),2026-11-01 获取
  4. Stage 5: IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI (2026); previous: Energy and AI (2025-04)第 5 段:IEA《Key Questions on Energy and AI》(2026);上一份:《Energy and AI》(2025-04)
  5. Stage 3: Microsoft Q1 FY2027: capex 39,367 million USD第 3 段:Microsoft Q1 FY2027:资本开支 39,367 百万美元
  6. Stage 3: Alphabet Q3 2026: capex 51,355 million USD第 3 段:Alphabet Q3 2026:资本开支 51,355 百万美元
  7. Stage 3: Amazon Q3 2026: capex 77,259 million USD第 3 段:Amazon Q3 2026:资本开支 77,259 百万美元
  8. Stage 3: Meta Q3 2026: capex 33,942 million USD第 3 段:Meta Q3 2026:资本开支 33,942 百万美元

Method and notes方法和说明

Epoch AI and IEA material is used under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0); the quarterly data-centre power totals are this site's sums of Epoch's site timelines. Signal compares the latest year-on-year growth with the period before (more than 2 points up or down): the month before for construction spending, the quarter before for the others. For data-centre power the signal compares capacity added at the same tracked sites in the latest four quarters with the four before (more than 10% more or less), because the series starts in 2024 by design. Token volumes are company disclosures at irregular dates, so they get no signal. The forecast signal compares the IEA's latest 2030 figure with its previous report.Epoch AI 与 IEA 资料按 CC BY 4.0(creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)使用;数据中心功率的季度合计为本站对 Epoch 站点时间线的求和。信号比较最新同比增速与上一期(升降超过 2 个百分点):建设支出比上一个月,其他比上一季度。数据中心功率的信号比较同一批跟踪站点近四个季度与之前四个季度的新增容量(多或少 10% 以上),因为该序列按收录规则从 2024 年起步。token 量是公司不定期披露的数字,因此不给信号。预测的信号比较 IEA 最新一份报告与上一份报告的 2030 年数字。

The last leg is orders and sales at the thermal makers.最后一棒是热管理厂商的订单和销售。

Continue with Industry delivery继续看产业兑现

Go deeper继续深入

Method方法

Every number comes from the company’s own release or filing. Almost all were extracted twice by independent models, compared by script and checked by a reviewer; a few found by only one model were checked against the source and are marked in the data tables, as are quarters derived from year-to-date totals. The thermal makers’ orders, backlog, margins and growth relay, calculated from these figures, are on the Industry delivery page. Fiscal calendars are aligned by real period dates. Personal research, not investment advice.每个数字都来自公司自己的公告或财报。绝大多数由两个独立模型分别提取、脚本比对并经复核;少数只有一个模型提取到的数值已对照原文核对,并在数据表中标注;由年初至今累计数推算的季度也有标注。热管理厂商的订单、在手订单、利润率和增长接力由这些数据计算,见产业兑现页。不同财年按真实期间日期对齐。个人研究,不构成投资建议。

Long-term debt and leases signed but not yet started长期债务和已签署但尚未开始的租赁

Long-term debt on the balance sheet资产负债表上的长期债务

USD bn, 30 June 2025 (grey) and 30 June 2026; non-current portion十亿美元,2025-06-30(灰)与 2026-06-30;非流动部分

050100150 AlphabetAlphabet98Amazon亚马逊129MetaMeta84Microsoft微软31

Leases signed but not yet started已签署但尚未开始的租赁

USD bn, a year apart (grey = a year earlier); mostly data centres; off the balance sheet until they start十亿美元,相隔一年(灰 = 一年前);主要是数据中心;开始前不入资产负债表

0100200300 Microsoft微软329MetaMeta279AlphabetAlphabet85Amazon亚马逊137Oracle甲骨文288

Whole industry: AI-related debt issuance全行业:AI 相关债务发行

USD bn, January to September; Morgan Stanley estimate via Wisburg; about 30% secured by assets; hyperscalers USD 132 bn of 2026十亿美元,1–9 月;摩根士丹利估算,经智堡;约 30% 有资产担保;2026 年其中超大规模云厂商 132 十亿美元

0100200300400500 20252026 101466
Large external financing events, from the companies' own filings大额外部融资事件,来自公司自己的文件14
Date日期Company公司Kind类型What, as stated内容(按原文)Source来源
2025-09-24Oracle甲骨文Bonds债券USD 18.0 bn senior notes180 亿美元优先票据filing文件
2025-10MetaMetaJoint venture合资Joint venture with Blue Owl funds for the Richland Parish, Louisiana campus: the investor put in USD 7.0 bn cash for 80%; Meta leases campus properties from 2029, initial commitment about USD 12.3 bn over four years与 Blue Owl 旗下基金就路易斯安那州 Richland Parish 园区合资:投资方出资 70 亿美元现金占 80%;Meta 自 2029 年起租用园区物业,初始租赁承诺约 123 亿美元、为期四年filing文件
2025-10-30MetaMetaBonds债券USD 30.0 bn senior notes300 亿美元优先票据filing文件
2025-11-03AlphabetAlphabetBonds债券USD 17.5 bn notes, with EUR 6.5 bn notes175 亿美元票据,另有 65 亿欧元票据filing文件
2025-11-19Amazon亚马逊Bonds债券USD 15.0 bn notes (sum of tranches)150 亿美元票据(各期之和)filing文件
2026-02-02Oracle甲骨文Bonds and equity债券与股权USD 25.0 bn senior notes, mandatory convertible preferred (net about USD 5.0 bn) and an at-the-market programme for up to USD 20 bn of common stock250 亿美元优先票据、强制可转换优先股(净额约 50 亿美元)及最高 200 亿美元普通股的市价发行计划filing文件
2026-02-09AlphabetAlphabetBonds债券USD 20.0 bn notes, with GBP 5.5 bn notes (one tranche due 2126)200 亿美元票据,另有 55 亿英镑票据(其中一期 2126 年到期)filing文件
2026-03-12Amazon亚马逊Bonds债券USD 37.0 bn notes (sum of tranches), with EUR 14.5 bn notes370 亿美元票据(各期之和),另有 145 亿欧元票据filing文件
2026-04-30MetaMetaBonds债券USD 25.0 bn senior notes250 亿美元优先票据filing文件
2026-05-05AlphabetAlphabetBonds债券CAD 8.5 bn, EUR 9.0 bn and JPY 576.5 bn notes (net USD 20.3 bn in the quarter)85 亿加元、90 亿欧元和 5,765 亿日元票据(当季净额 203 亿美元)filing文件
2026-06-01AlphabetAlphabetEquity股权Issued Class A and C stock and mandatory convertible preferred for net USD 49.6 bn, and set up an at-the-market programme to sell up to USD 40 bn of stock over time发行 A 类、C 类股票和强制可转换优先股,净额 496 亿美元;并设立最多 400 亿美元、可分次出售股票的市价发行计划filing文件
2026-06-08Amazon亚马逊Loan and bonds贷款与债券USD 17.5 bn delayed-draw term loan facility (could be drawn until 30 September 2026), with CAD 14.0 bn notes the same week175 亿美元延迟提款定期贷款额度(可在 2026 年 9 月 30 日前提款),同周另有 140 亿加元票据filing文件
2026-07-08Amazon亚马逊Bonds债券USD 25.0 bn notes (sum of tranches)250 亿美元票据(各期之和)filing文件
2026-08-06AlphabetAlphabetBonds债券USD 25.0 bn notes250 亿美元票据filing文件
Forecasts by report, and the big-four guidance for 2026 capex各报告的预测,以及四大云厂商 2026 年资本开支指引

Data-centre electricity forecasts数据中心用电预测

TWh per year, by report; hollow and dashed = forecast; ranges as published每年 TWh,按报告;空心与虚线 = 预测;区间按原文

04008001200 IEA 2025: world 2030IEA 2025:2030 年全球~945IEA 2026: world 2030IEA 2026:2030 年全球~950LBNL 2025: US 2030LBNL 2025:2030 年美国521–843

Big-four guidance for 2026 capex四大云厂商 2026 年资本开支指引

USD bn, each statement in order; guidance drawn hollow; definitions differ, so they are not added. * Microsoft: lease reclassification, plan unchanged十亿美元,按每次表述排列;指引画成空心;口径不同,不相加。* Microsoft:租赁重分类,计划不变

100150200250 Alphabet FebAlphabet 2 月175–185Alphabet AprAlphabet 4 月180–190Alphabet JulAlphabet 7 月195–205Meta JanMeta 1 月115–135Meta AprMeta 4 月125–145Meta JulMeta 7 月130–145Meta OctMeta 10 月135–145Amazon FebAmazon 2 月~200Amazon OctAmazon 10 月~220Microsoft AprMicrosoft 4 月~190Microsoft JulMicrosoft 7 月~175*Microsoft OctMicrosoft 10 月~170
Database view: every value on this page数据库视图:本页使用的全部数值181 rows181 行
Showing显示 181Epoch AI and IEA material is used under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0); the quarterly data-centre power totals are this site's sums of Epoch's site timelines.Epoch AI 与 IEA 资料按 CC BY 4.0(creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)使用;数据中心功率的季度合计为本站对 Epoch 站点时间线的求和。
Company or stage公司或阶段Metric or series指标或序列Period期间Value数值Unit单位Basis口径Source来源
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0115,589USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0217,920USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0318,015USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0417,943USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0518,232USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0618,735USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0719,641USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0820,498USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-0921,285USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-1023,720USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-1123,864USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2023-1224,238USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0126,412USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0228,319USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0330,172USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0428,069USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0532,271USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0635,304USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0736,124USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0836,668USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-0937,576USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-1040,048USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-1140,951USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2024-1244,703USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0145,341USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0246,409USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0346,593USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0452,818USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0548,210USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0646,850USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0747,810USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0849,052USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-0950,700USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-1054,260USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-1153,043USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2025-1255,461USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0156,211USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0257,361USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0358,121USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0461,859USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0565,688USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率as published已公布link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0672,695USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率revised修订值link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0779,007USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率revised修订值link链接
1. Macro and funding1. 宏观与资金US private construction spending: data centres美国私人建设支出:数据中心2026-0884,950USD million, seasonally adjusted annual rate百万美元,季节调整年率preliminary初值link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens processed per month across Google's surfacesGoogle 各产品每月处理的 token2024-059.7 trillion9.7 万亿tokens per monthtoken/月Company statement, published 2026-05-19公司表述,2026-05-19 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens processed per month across Google's surfacesGoogle 各产品每月处理的 token2025-05roughly 480 trillion约480 万亿tokens per monthtoken/月Company statement, published 2026-05-19公司表述,2026-05-19 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens processed per month across Google's surfacesGoogle 各产品每月处理的 token2025-07980 trillion980 万亿tokens per monthtoken/月Company statement, published 2025-10-29公司表述,2025-10-29 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens processed per month across Google's surfacesGoogle 各产品每月处理的 token2025-10over 1,300 trillion超过1,300 万亿tokens per monthtoken/月Company statement, published 2025-10-29公司表述,2025-10-29 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens processed per month across Google's surfacesGoogle 各产品每月处理的 token2026-05over 3,200 trillion超过3,200 万亿tokens per monthtoken/月Company statement, published 2026-05-19公司表述,2026-05-19 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute through Google's model APIs (direct customer use)Google 模型 API 每分钟处理的 token(客户直接调用)2025-107 billion70 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2025-10-29公司表述,2025-10-29 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute through Google's model APIs (direct customer use)Google 模型 API 每分钟处理的 token(客户直接调用)2026-05roughly 19 billion约190 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2026-05-19公司表述,2026-05-19 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute through Google's model APIs (direct customer use)Google 模型 API 每分钟处理的 token(客户直接调用)2026-07approximately 22 billion约220 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2026-07-22公司表述,2026-07-22 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute through Google's model APIs (direct customer use)Google 模型 API 每分钟处理的 token(客户直接调用)2026-10nearly 32 billion近320 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2026-10-28公司表述,2026-10-28 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute on OpenAI's API platformOpenAI API 平台每分钟处理的 token2025-106 billion60 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2025-10-06公司表述,2025-10-06 发布link链接
2. AI use2. AI 使用Tokens per minute on OpenAI's API platformOpenAI API 平台每分钟处理的 token2026-03over 15 billion超过150 亿tokens per minutetoken/分钟Company statement, published 2026-03-31公司表述,2026-03-31 发布link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q4 202472.34USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q1 202571.90USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q2 202588.25USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q3 202597.27USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q4 2025118.63USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q1 2026129.75USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q2 2026165.05USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
3. Investment3. 投资Big-four cloud capex (sum of the four reported figures)四大云厂商资本开支(四家报告值之和)Q3 2026201.92USD bn per quarter十亿美元/季度Reported; quarters matched by period end报告口径;按期间截止日对齐季度link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2024-03-31534MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2024-06-30935MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2024-09-301,381MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2024-12-312,015MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2025-03-312,688MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2025-06-303,948MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2025-09-304,667MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2025-12-316,789MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2026-03-318,447MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2026-06-3012,200MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2026-09-3014,054MWEpoch estimateEpoch 估计link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2026-12-3117,052MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2027-03-3119,311MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2027-06-3020,299MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2027-09-3022,274MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2027-12-3124,998MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2028-03-3130,296MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2028-06-3032,299MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2028-09-3033,259MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
4. Construction4. 建设落地IT power in operation, tracked sites跟踪站点投运 IT 功率2028-12-3138,176MWEpoch projectionEpoch 预测link链接
Key number: thermal makers' combined sales关键数字:热管理厂商合计销售Combined sales of Vertiv, Johnson Controls, Carrier and Trane, year on yearVertiv、江森自控、开利、Trane 合计销售额同比Q4 2025+4.86%Reported, company-wide; calculated from the four sales figures报告口径,全公司;由四家销售额计算link链接
Key number: thermal makers' combined sales关键数字:热管理厂商合计销售Combined sales of Vertiv, Johnson Controls, Carrier and Trane, year on yearVertiv、江森自控、开利、Trane 合计销售额同比Q1 2026+8.42%Reported, company-wide; calculated from the four sales figures报告口径,全公司;由四家销售额计算link链接
Key number: thermal makers' combined sales关键数字:热管理厂商合计销售Combined sales of Vertiv, Johnson Controls, Carrier and Trane, year on yearVertiv、江森自控、开利、Trane 合计销售额同比Q2 2026+9.94%Reported, company-wide; calculated from the four sales figures报告口径,全公司;由四家销售额计算link链接
Key number: thermal makers' combined sales关键数字:热管理厂商合计销售Combined sales of Vertiv, Johnson Controls, Carrier and Trane, year on yearVertiv、江森自控、开利、Trane 合计销售额同比Q3 2026+19.62%Reported, company-wide; calculated from the four sales figures报告口径,全公司;由四家销售额计算link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测IEA, Energy and AI (2025-04): Global data centres, Base CaseIEA《Energy and AI》(2025-04):全球数据中心,基准情景2024415TWhestimate估计link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测IEA, Energy and AI (2025-04): Global data centres, Base CaseIEA《Energy and AI》(2025-04):全球数据中心,基准情景2030~945TWhforecast预测link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测IEA, Energy and AI (2025-04): Global data centres, Base CaseIEA《Energy and AI》(2025-04):全球数据中心,基准情景2035~1,200TWhforecast预测link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI (2026): Global data centresIEA《Key Questions on Energy and AI》(2026):全球数据中心2025485TWhestimate估计link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI (2026): Global data centresIEA《Key Questions on Energy and AI》(2026):全球数据中心2030950TWhforecast预测link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report (2024-12): US data centresLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory《2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report》(2024-12):美国数据中心2028325–580TWhforecast预测link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update (2026-06): US data centresLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory《United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update》(2026-06):美国数据中心2030649TWhforecast预测link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Alphabet: 2026 capex guidanceAlphabet:2026 年资本开支指引2026-02-04175–185USD bn十亿美元Company statement公司表述link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Alphabet: 2026 capex guidanceAlphabet:2026 年资本开支指引2026-04-29180–190USD bn十亿美元now includes the Intersect acquisition纳入 Intersect 收购link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Alphabet: 2026 capex guidanceAlphabet:2026 年资本开支指引2026-07-22195–205USD bn十亿美元faster delivery of capacity to meet demand加快交付容量以满足需求link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Meta: 2026 capex guidance (includes principal payments on finance leases)Meta:2026 年资本开支指引(含融资租赁本金支付)2026-01-28115–135USD bn十亿美元Company statement公司表述link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Meta: 2026 capex guidance (includes principal payments on finance leases)Meta:2026 年资本开支指引(含融资租赁本金支付)2026-04-29125–145USD bn十亿美元Company statement公司表述link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Meta: 2026 capex guidance (includes principal payments on finance leases)Meta:2026 年资本开支指引(含融资租赁本金支付)2026-07-29130–145USD bn十亿美元range narrowed (low end raised)区间收窄(下限上调)link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Meta: 2026 capex guidanceMeta:2026 年资本开支指引2026-10-21135–145USD bn十亿美元range narrowed (low end raised)区间收窄(下限上调)link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Amazon: 2026 capex guidanceAmazon:2026 年资本开支指引2026-02-05about 200约200USD bn十亿美元Later calls (April and July 2026) are published as audio only; any update there is not verified and not shown.之后的电话会(2026 年 4 月、7 月)只有音频;其中的更新未核实,不显示。link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Amazon: 2026 capex guidanceAmazon:2026 年资本开支指引2026-10-29approximately 220约220USD bn十亿美元"Continue to expect" refers to calls published as audio only; this release is the first written source for USD 220 bn found here."继续预计"指的是只有音频的电话会;本公告是这里找到的第一个写明 2,200 亿美元的书面来源。link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Microsoft: 2026 capex guidanceMicrosoft:2026 年资本开支指引2026-04-29roughly 190约190USD bn十亿美元Includes about USD 25 bn from higher component prices; Microsoft gave its first calendar-2026 figure on this call.含约 250 亿美元的元器件涨价影响;这是 Microsoft 首次给出 2026 日历年数字。link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Microsoft: 2026 capex guidanceMicrosoft:2026 年资本开支指引2026-07-29approximately 175约175USD bn十亿美元lease reclassification, plan unchanged租赁重分类,计划不变link链接
5. Forecasts5. 预测Microsoft: 2026 capex guidanceMicrosoft:2026 年资本开支指引2026-10-28approximately 170约170USD bn十亿美元Lowered from about USD 175 bn; Microsoft attributes it to delays in third-party capacity.由约 1,750 亿美元下调;Microsoft 称原因是第三方算力交付延迟。link链接
MicrosoftcapexQ2 202515,804million USDreportedlink链接
AlphabetcapexQ4 202414,276million USDreportedlink链接
AmazoncapexQ4 202427,834million USDreportedlink链接
MetacapexQ4 202414,425million USDreportedlink链接
MicrosoftcapexQ3 202516,745million USDreportedlink链接
AlphabetcapexQ1 202517,197million USDreportedlink链接
AmazoncapexQ1 202525,019million USDreportedlink链接
MetacapexQ1 202512,941million USDreportedlink链接
MicrosoftcapexQ4 202517,079million USDreportedlink链接
AlphabetcapexQ2 202522,446million USDreportedlink链接
AmazoncapexQ2 202532,183million USDreportedlink链接
MetacapexQ2 202516,538million USDreportedlink链接
MicrosoftcapexQ1 202619,394million USDreportedlink链接
AlphabetcapexQ3 202523,953million USDreportedlink链接
AmazoncapexQ3 202535,095million USDreportedlink链接
MetacapexQ3 202518,829million USDreportedlink链接
MicrosoftcapexQ2 202629,876million USDreportedlink链接
AlphabetcapexQ4 202527,851million USDreportedlink链接
AmazoncapexQ4 202539,522million USDreportedlink链接
MetacapexQ4 202521,383million USDreportedlink链接
MicrosoftcapexQ3 202630,876million USDreportedlink链接
AlphabetcapexQ1 202635,674million USDreportedlink链接
AmazoncapexQ1 202644,203million USDreportedlink链接
MetacapexQ1 202618,997million USDreportedlink链接
MicrosoftcapexQ4 FY202635,802million USDreportedlink链接
AlphabetcapexQ2 202644,924million USDreportedlink链接
AmazoncapexQ2 202654,208million USDreportedlink链接
MetacapexQ2 202630,116million USDreportedlink链接
MicrosoftcapexQ1 FY202739,367million USDreportedlink链接
AlphabetcapexQ3 202651,355million USDreportedlink链接
AmazoncapexQ3 202677,259million USDreportedlink链接
MetacapexQ3 202633,942million USDreportedlink链接
VertivrevenueQ4 20242,346.4million USDreportedlink链接
Johnson ControlsrevenueQ1 20255,426million USDreportedlink链接
CarrierrevenueQ4 20245,148million USDreportedlink链接
TranerevenueQ4 20244,874million USDreportedlink链接
VertivrevenueQ1 20252,036million USDreportedlink链接
Johnson ControlsrevenueQ2 20255,676million USDreportedlink链接
CarrierrevenueQ1 20255,218million USDreportedlink链接
TranerevenueQ1 20254,688.5million USDreportedlink链接
VertivrevenueQ2 20252,638.1million USDreportedlink链接
Johnson ControlsrevenueQ3 20256,052million USDreportedlink链接
CarrierrevenueQ2 20256,113million USDreportedlink链接
TranerevenueQ2 20255,746.4million USDreportedlink链接
VertivrevenueQ3 20252,675.8million USDreportedlink链接
Johnson ControlsrevenueQ4 20256,442million USDreportedlink链接
CarrierrevenueQ3 20255,579million USDreportedlink链接
TranerevenueQ3 20255,742.5million USDreportedlink链接
VertivrevenueQ4 20252,880million USDreportedlink链接
Johnson ControlsrevenueQ1 20265,797million USDreportedlink链接
CarrierrevenueQ4 20254,837million USDreportedlink链接
TranerevenueQ4 20255,144.5million USDreportedlink链接
VertivrevenueQ1 20262,649.5million USDreportedlink链接
Johnson ControlsrevenueQ2 20266,142million USDreportedlink链接
CarrierrevenueQ1 20265,341million USDreportedlink链接
TranerevenueQ1 20264,969.4million USDreportedlink链接
VertivrevenueQ2 20263,274million USDreportedlink链接
Johnson ControlsrevenueQ3 20266,614million USDreportedlink链接
CarrierrevenueQ2 20266,351million USDreportedlink链接
TranerevenueQ2 20266,353.5million USDreportedlink链接
VertivrevenueQ3 20264,313million USDreportedlink链接
Johnson ControlsrevenueQ4 20267,113million USDreportedlink链接
CarrierrevenueQ3 20266,263million USDreportedlink链接
TranerevenueQ3 20266,759.7million USDreportedlink链接
OraclecapexQ1 202728,499million USDreportedlink链接
AlphabetcapexQ3 202413,061million USDreportedlink链接
AmazoncapexQ3 202422,620million USDreportedlink链接
MetacapexQ3 20248,258million USDreportedlink链接
MicrosoftcapexQ1 202514,923million USDreportedlink链接
OraclecapexQ1 20268,502million USDreportedlink链接
OraclecapexQ2 FY202612,033million USDreportedlink链接
OraclecapexQ3 FY202618,635million USDreportedlink链接
OraclecapexQ3 FY20255,862million USDreportedlink链接
OraclecapexQ4 FY202616,493million USDreportedlink链接
OraclecapexQ4 FY20259,080million USDreportedlink链接